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Trouncing the Dow: A Value-Based Method for Making Huge Profits in the Stock Market, by Kenneth W. Lee
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Insights on value investing from a Wall Street superbroker. From 1973 to 1997, the stock market averaged 9% return. Kenneth Lee's "Benchmark Investing" averaged 24%. Value investing may be a hot topic on Wall Street right now, but Lee has been making money with it for nearly a quarter-century. Troucning the Dow, Written in an easy-to-understand style, is packed with step-by-step instructions that show any investor how to be a winner. With returns that rival Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham, Kenneth Lee carves out his own spot in history with Trouncing the Dow.
- Sales Rank: #3084217 in Books
- Published on: 1998-08-31
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.50" h x 1.32" w x 5.60" l,
- Binding: Hardcover
- 284 pages
Review
Of course, a certain kind of investor still prefers a "system" for trading stocks. Thousands have been devised over the ears. They ma work for a short time under certain market conditions, but then they fail. Every now and then, though, someone comes along with a carefully reasoned method that seems to work. Kenneth Lee explains his own in "Trouncing the Dow" (McGraw-Hill, 284 pages, $24.95). (The Wall Street Journal 1998-12-24)
"This book outlines a simple investment method that helps investors reach their goals for average annual returns." (Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities Magazine 1998-12-11)
From the Back Cover
The updated edition of this practical guide to site design and development will be invaluable to all civil engineers, architects, and planners involved in land development projects. The book fully examines the political, economic, and construction considerations as well as the physical limitations of any new project. The Third Edition contains expanded information on the use of the computer as an engineering and drafting tool - plus new applications of GPS, GIS, and the Internet. Also featured are new developments in the use of construction materials;heavily revised sections on drainage, site design, and planning;and metric units as the primary measurement system.
About the Author
Kenneth Lee is a vice president with Smith Barney, where he manages $50 billion in client assets. Lee started his career at Merrill Lynch, where he received an award as the top producing new broker in the nation. Since 1989, he has published DowBuys, an investment newsletter that focuses on stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Most helpful customer reviews
22 of 22 people found the following review helpful.
A Different Angle On Betting Dow Value
By A Customer
The 1990's have brought a striking popularity in books that promise outsize returns based on simple formulas. The most obvious example of the genre is the Dow Dogs strategy. Made popular by Michael O'Higgins and Jim O'Shaughnessy, among others, underperformance in recent years has done little to dampen investor enthusiasm.
Kenneth Lee's Trouncing The Dow offers a new twist on betting the undervalued Dow stocks theory. Employing a methodology he dubs benchmark investing, Lee seeks to establish price ranges using historical return on equity and price/book value figures. Once established these price ranges are used to establish concrete reference points the investor can use to consistently focus on undervalued stocks. The book has tables of the calculations from 1973-96, allowing those so inclined to compare current valuations with past Dow results under most market conditions. The process also forces the reader to dig into a company's fundamentals and get a feel for how it has been priced in the past.
The appeal here is obvious. A concise method for divining value on a select group of non-volatile stocks where information is readily available. (Lee suggests using The Value Line Investment Survey). The mechanical process eliminates emotion from the equation, allowing the reader to use history as a guide when uncertainty has gripped the market. The fact that Lee stresses low turnover, eschews market timing, and adheres to popular value tenets puts the ideas here on the same wavelength as studies produced recently in books by Jeremy Siegel and Jim O'Shaughnessy. Personally however, when I see strategies based on Dow stocks I tend to want to see computer studies based on similar stocks. I want to see large samples. They give the picture texture and background, they help point out any possible flaws or reasons for concern. Back testing has its limitations. Early on Lee states he originally developed the formula employing the Value Line universe on a computer. In fact, the current configuration of Value Line's electronic product makes Lee's process relatively easy to implement on a broad scale. To include summaries of the results of that data would have added considerable weight to his argument.
It seems to me that the real question here is whether anomalies pointed out here and popularized by O'Higgins and others will continue to outperform. Indeed, many of the ideas here overlap with popular titles of the last few years. Is the Wall Street establishment so short-term focused that long-term value plays based on simple rules offer an easy short cut? Though many would like to deny it, there is enough efficiency in the United States equity markets to make outperformance a relatively difficult task. Though the idea of "beating the experts" without complex strategies makes a cute media story, it continues to be a tall order.
In Trouncing The Dow, Lee makes the case it can be done. The book is a quick read and offers a formula that anyone can employ to make up his or her own mind.
10 of 11 people found the following review helpful.
Great book
By Wall Street Student
Reading TTD, after reading other books on 'Value Investing' I actually found a strategy that I could use. I have been a student of finance over 30 years and have read other books, and this book gave me 'the tools' to evaluate a companies a companies potential.
I can't say that this book will teach you everything, but it does a very good job of teaching you the basics. Though 'value investing' is not in favor for the current times, I do believe it is the most sensible approach to evaluate a company, and over the long term will prove to be a better approach then chasing the 'whats hot on wall street' method.
If you are a conservative invester, read this book. If you are an aggressive investor, looking for returns of 30% or more(every year), good luck.
4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Simple, workable system!
By Steven Phillips
As some other reviews of this book state, there are NO perfect mathematical formulae for selecting investments. No formula can consistently anticipate all of the myriad changes that can affect a particular issue in the highly fluid, dynamic universe of investments. All valuation formulae are simplistic constructs which are used in the place of an elusive, magical crystal ball to derive either the absolute or relative worth of financial instruments. And all such constructs must be based upon assumptions (which are subject to all sorts of errors)- all of them!
Perhaps the most widely-used financial formulae today are based on some variant of discounted cash flow (DCF). But DCF requires selection of an appropriate discount rate, a forecast of future cash flows, and some kind of wild-eyed guess as to the investment's terminal value. Calculations which substitute earnings for cash flow are hopelessly flawed from the outset! Any calculation which uses a forecast is probably "in over its head" before any processing is done.
Since we cannot find the perfect formula which will yield calculations of 100% certainty, perhaps we should base our investment philosophy on skilled analyses of financial statements. However, financial statements are also built upon (possibly flawed or outdated) assumptions and conventions, and are hopelessly backward-looking while markets are always forward-looking. Financial information is too stale and is often inaccurate (vide ENRON or WorldCom, etc.).
Maybe following news releases would be better. However, because markets are discounting mechanisms, most of the financially important events are already incorporated into the market price before the news is released. Try an experiment: record the breaking news stories, both positive and negative, on any financial news network and see how well the companies and their stock prices perform 30, 90, 180, and 365 days after the news release. On many of the positive stories, you will find that the stock price will sell no, or only marginally, higher on the day of the release, and thereafter. You will often find the converse for negative news releases. Buying on positive- or selling on negative- releases is not likely the way to make consistent profits in the financial markets.
Then there is technical analysis, which is often not very technical at all. Last week, a major bank group fired the entire staff from its 45 year-old technical analysis department because the bank's management could not find added value to its overall operations from this department. However, Andrew Lo, et. al., from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, performed a study on technical analysis over a 30 year period and found that certain indicators provided an incremental benefit to investment returns over the period studied. There may be some utility to be mined from this area.
All the above said, Lee's book offers a simple method for selecting undervalued stocks from the universe of the Dow Jones 30 Industrials. Best yet, the raw data is available for free on the Value Line web site. The author uses past data to derive an average benchmark based upon how the issue previously traded against its book value. (Academic research has shown price versus book value to have some predictive ability.) I have performed sample testing on Lee's method and feel that it is useful in providing the average investor a fighting chance in: 1) safeguarding one's capital funds; and 2) earning a reasonable (if not superior) rate of market return. (Superior returns are possible, however I feel very strongly that such superior returns are often the product of sufficient capital, stringent loss control, the direction of the secular trend, selection of the appropriate vehicle, and L-U-C-K.)
I believe that Lee's methodology makes sense and is workable for somebody wanting to manage one's own investment funds and understand the process of stock selection. While this method is not perfect and will probably lead to less than perfect results, it will likely provide satisfactory long-term results for the individual investor who doesn't mind crunching his or her own numbers.
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